No adjudicated outcome yet
The thesis remains public. This tab will record the first dated outcome when verified evidence reaches the preregistered measurement point.
Outcome Ledger · Rubric version 1.0
From catalyst to measured consequence.
Outcomes are attached to each monitored company thesis. The three free theses remain public; paid membership expands the same versioned tracking system across covered companies, saved watchlists and alerts.
Five-level outcome scale
Readable at a glance. Auditable underneath.
- Significant positive impact
- Positive gradual impact
- Little, mixed or unproven impact
- Negative gradual impact
- Significant negative impact
Free thesis outcome · NVDA
Nvidia outcome branch
Tracked thesisCatalyst evidence to measured outcomesEach branch represents a separately testable and versioned commercial outcome.
Hover over a box or focus it with a keyboard to see the evidence summary and weighting. On touch screens, the explanation remains visible beneath each outcome.
Breathing grading rubric
The grade moves when the evidence moves.
Every outcome is rescored from −2 to +2. The weighted result determines color; evidence confidence and revision history remain separate.Commercial realization
Revenue, paid adoption, volume, market share or milestone conversion versus the preregistered benchmark.
Operating economics
Gross margin, contribution profit, cash generation, ROIC or value creation relative to capital and implementation cost.
Durability
Whether the result persists, broadens or reverses across later reporting periods.
External validation
Independent customer, payer, regulator, partner or audited evidence beyond management narrative.
Significant positive impact+1.25 to +2.00
Materially exceeds the preregistered commercial benchmark, improves operating economics and remains supported across at least two measurement periods.
Positive gradual impact+0.35 to +1.24
Evidence is directionally positive, but magnitude, durability or translation into revenue and profit is still developing.
Little, mixed or unproven impact−0.34 to +0.34
The evidence is immaterial, conflicting, too early, or insufficient to distinguish a durable outcome from normal variation.
Negative gradual impact−1.24 to −0.35
Adoption, economics or milestone delivery is deteriorating, but the damage is limited, reversible or not yet persistent.
Significant negative impact−2.00 to −1.25
A material miss, rejection, withdrawal or persistent deterioration substantially impairs the preregistered commercial thesis.
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Method note
Why the rubric uses more than stock movement
Event-study research measures market reaction with abnormal returns relative to an expected-return model. That answers whether the market reacted unusually around an event. This Ledger answers a different question: whether the underlying catalyst became a durable commercial result. Product adoption, retention, operating economics and independent validation therefore drive the outcome grade.