Outcome Ledger · Rubric version 1.0

From catalyst to measured consequence.

Occurrence, Expected Impact, Realized Impact and significance are recorded separately. A catalyst can fail to occur and still strengthen the company, or occur and produce a harmful or immaterial result. The grade measures attributable company consequence, not thesis accuracy or stock performance.

Five-level outcome scale

Readable at a glance.Auditable underneath.

Significant positive impact
Positive impact
Little, mixed or neutral impact
Negative impact
Significant negative impact

View the grading rubric ↓

Science · Biotech · Prospective thesis outcome · WGS

GeneDx outcome branch

1 prospectively locked branch · outcome unresolved

Tracked thesisCatalyst evidence → measured outcomeEach branch represents a separately testable and versioned commercial outcome.

Active · UnresolvedCan test-mix gains become durable diagnostic economics?

Evidence through 2026-08-07: Q2 revenue reached $114.4 million, including $100.3 million of exome and genome revenue on 30,785 tests. The record does not yet establish durable mix, reimbursement, collections, turnaround, diagnostic utility and operating quality; the measurement window therefore remains open.

Thesis locked: August 7th, 2026
Occurrence: Unresolved
Expected measurement: October 15th, 2026
Outcome grade: Not assigned

Next evidence review · November 15th, 2026Evidence source ↗

Breathing grading rubric

The grade moves when the evidence moves.

Expected Impact is frozen before outcome evidence opens. Realized Impact is assigned only from explicit catalyst-to-company causal consequences. Occurrence, significance, evidence maturity and revision history remain separate. Internal calibration thresholds are not published.

Open complete grading rubricDimensions, grade anchors, significance and guardrails

Financial contribution

Revenue, profit, cash flow, capital structure or other demonstrated financial effect attributable to the catalyst.

Commercial contribution

Customer adoption, demand, retention, market access or other demonstrated commercial effect attributable to the catalyst.

Strategic transformation

A demonstrated change to the company’s strategic mix, identity, addressable opportunity or long-term direction.

Operating transformation

A demonstrated change to capacity, execution, efficiency, cost structure or operating capability.

Competitive opportunity cost

A demonstrated gain or loss in competitive position, alternatives, constraints or forgone opportunity.

Durability

Whether the attributable company effect persisted, broadened, reversed or remains too early to measure.

Catalyst Outcome Grade

Significant positive impact+2.00

The catalyst produced a strong attributable positive effect, materially improving the relevant commercial, financial, strategic, operating, or competitive outcome.

Positive impact+1.00

The catalyst produced a clear attributable positive effect, improving the relevant outcome without reaching the depth of a significant positive effect.

Little, mixed or neutral impact0

The catalyst produced little net attributable effect, or positive and negative consequences substantially offset one another. Insufficient evidence is Unmeasurable, not zero.

Negative impact-1.00

The catalyst produced a clear attributable negative effect, weakening the relevant outcome without reaching the depth of a significant negative effect.

Significant negative impact-2.00

The catalyst produced a strong attributable negative effect, materially worsening the relevant commercial, financial, strategic, operating, or competitive outcome.

Separate Breadth-and-Reach Measure

No demonstrated breadth or company reach

Minimal demonstrated breadth and reach

Limited demonstrated breadth and reach

Meaningful demonstrated breadth and reach

Major demonstrated breadth and reach

Enterprise-wide demonstrated breadth and reach

Unmeasurable breadth or company reach

Pending and Unmeasurable are off-scale evidence states. They are never converted to zero impact or zero significance and are never averaged as demonstrated immateriality.

Occurrence is neutral

Yes, Partially, No and Unresolved describe what happened. They never supply the sign or magnitude of Realized Impact.

Causal attribution gate

Every signed dimension requires an explicit catalyst-to-company causal bridge. Background company performance, management framing and merely consistent evidence are excluded and eligible weights are renormalized.

Nested comparison gate

Quarter and annual summaries are comparable only when both cover the identical locked catalyst set. If the sets differ, the nested gap is unavailable rather than estimated.

Evidence sufficiency guardrail

Outcome direction and magnitude come from attributable company consequence. Evidence Maturity and Significance are recorded separately and do not independently set the grade. A signed grade still requires sufficient attributable evidence and no unresolved contradiction capable of reversing the conclusion.

Price is context, not the grade

Market reaction may be displayed separately as benchmark-adjusted abnormal return. It cannot substitute for adoption, revenue, margins, cash generation or validated milestones.

Regulatory override and no hindsight rewriting

A defined political or regulatory event may override the ordinary outcome path when its trigger is met. Thresholds and expected signals are recorded before adjudication. Later revisions create a new version.

Subscription feature preview

Track more companies without losing the audit trail.

Expanded company coverageFollow outcome branches for paid research beyond the four public prospective samples.

Saved watchlists and alertsSave companies and receive alerts when evidence, grades or thesis status changes.

Cross-company comparisonFilter by catalyst, grade, confidence, sector and measurement period.

Immutable revision historySee what changed, why it changed and which evidence caused the revision.

View membership access →

Method note

Why the rubric uses more than stock movement

Event-study research measures market reaction with abnormal returns relative to an expected-return model. That answers whether the market reacted unusually around an event. This Ledger answers a different question: what attributable consequence the catalyst produced for company direction. Financial, commercial, strategic, operating, competitive-opportunity and durability effects therefore drive the outcome grade.

Event-study foundation ↗Company-analysis framework ↗