Outcome Ledger · Rubric version 1.0
Outcomes are attached to each monitored company thesis. The three free theses remain public; paid membership expands the same versioned tracking system across covered companies, saved watchlists and alerts.
Five-level outcome scale
Free thesis outcome · WGS
Reported exome and genome volume increased 32% year over year. Adoption is moving in the expected direction, but one reporting period is not enough to establish durable commercial impact.
WeightingCommercial realization +1.2; operating economics 0.0; durability +0.5; external validation +0.7. Evidence remains provisional pending another reporting period.
Total revenue increased 11% while exome and genome volume increased 32%. The filing does not disclose enough realized revenue per test, payer mix or reimbursement timing to confirm proportional conversion.
WeightingCommercial realization +0.4; operating economics -0.2; durability +0.3; external validation 0.0. Conflicting signals keep the result near neutral.
Adjusted gross margin improved and adjusted net income was positive, while the company still reported a GAAP net loss. The economics are improving, but the evidence does not yet establish durable GAAP profitability.
WeightingCommercial realization +0.5; operating economics +1.0; durability +0.2; external validation 0.0. The grade is capped below significant until profitability persists.
Hover over a box or focus it with a keyboard to see the evidence summary and weighting. On touch screens, the explanation remains visible beneath each outcome.
Breathing grading rubric
Revenue, paid adoption, volume, market share or milestone conversion versus the preregistered benchmark.
Gross margin, contribution profit, cash generation, ROIC or value creation relative to capital and implementation cost.
Whether the result persists, broadens or reverses across later reporting periods.
Independent customer, payer, regulator, partner or audited evidence beyond management narrative.
Materially exceeds the preregistered commercial benchmark, improves operating economics and remains supported across at least two measurement periods.
Evidence is directionally positive, but magnitude, durability or translation into revenue and profit is still developing.
The evidence is immaterial, conflicting, too early, or insufficient to distinguish a durable outcome from normal variation.
Adoption, economics or milestone delivery is deteriorating, but the damage is limited, reversible or not yet persistent.
A material miss, rejection, withdrawal or persistent deterioration substantially impairs the preregistered commercial thesis.
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Method note
Event-study research measures market reaction with abnormal returns relative to an expected-return model. That answers whether the market reacted unusually around an event. This Ledger answers a different question: whether the underlying catalyst became a durable commercial result. Product adoption, retention, operating economics and independent validation therefore drive the outcome grade.